A Crisis and our reaction

On Friday night I interrupted my viewing of the England match to see the start of a chilling news programme which would leave me awake until the early hours of the morning.

A bitter and dire situation has unfolded on the land of Marianne and it will cast a shadow over Europe, a shadow made up of extremism, hatred and twisted, evil faith.  As I stand a few days after the awful shadow looms, as the spears are sharpened and the belt of security is tightened across the Western World we must all try and sit around the table and sort all of this out.

The Assad regime in Syria is a disgusting, backward dictatorship but the circumstances of the world have now forced our hand, we need not back Assad but we are forced into a corner now, ISIS is inside Europe, we must push on and remove their power at the source, in Syria and the Middle East

Promising signs at the G20 have shown Mr Cameron sat alongside Mr Putin, I have no affection for this man but need I remind you that we allied with Stalin to beat Hitler?  That we are happy to stand alongside Saudi Arabia and recently recommended them for a human rights seat at the UN?  I'm not saying we should have no morality internationally but diplomacy is often more difficult than 'this is evil so we won't support it' or even 'this is good so we will support it'.  Right now our path is clear, all of the big players want ISIS gone and currently chipping away separately is not hitting them hard enough.  The concentrated might of NATO and Russia would destroy their apparatus quicker than the current situation could ever hope to.  As unwise as it may appear at face value we have to get rid of this threat, and we have to do it now.  The Russians, NATO and all of our key allies are behind it, everyone seems to be.  In response to the foul Islamic State it is vital that the world unites against this evil, you cannot negotiate with these people and even if we could would we want to?

War is hell, we all know this and it must be avoided wherever possible, I agree with this very strongly as a man of peace who sees violence as the last resort, yet the last resort we have reached...  Innocent people will die, Assad will stay but that is how war works and many will lose even if they survive.  Right now we have a greater call, a call to remove an evil that knows no bounds, with no international allies there is no reason for ISIS to march to the drum of anyone but itself.  If we allow it to continue London, Moscow, Marseille, Madrid and Washington may see more blood spilled.

The values of Marianne were built on the blood of the upper classes, the American Revolution allowed colonialists to build a nation on slave labor and Trafalgar allowed the British to choke the worlds resources in the name of Britannia for another 100 years.  History is built on blood, the decision we face now is not What will the world think if we back Assad? rather the question is What will the world think if we do not destroy ISIS?



Finally I must point out that the Egypt disaster may not have been ISIS (I don't know, no one does) but it was a foul act that seems likely to be the act of similar extremists, today I weep not just with Marianne but with Mother Russia too.

3 Ways the UK will be different in 50 years

1. The National Health Service
The NHS was hailed as the greatest free healthcare system in the world when it was adopted in 1948.  She has been a beacon of pride to the British people for over 60 years now and has helped all of us at one point or another.

The cracks have started to appear.... A&E waiting times through the roof, GP's going on strike over 7 day weeks and an ageing population are all factors in the slow deterioration of the service.  As our once proud NHS is sold off one piece either by Labour or by Tory the service will change beyond recognition.

I know not how Britain will be servicing her peoples health in 50 years time, but I highly doubt it will be free at the point of entry, I highly doubt it will as comprehensive and I highly doubt it will be called the National Health Service.

The reason you ask?  Money!  Healthcare is big business the world over and tax hikes in the modern world will never generate the wealth needed to support a nation predicted to be upwards of 80 million, when the NHS was founded we had 37 million people.  It was a nice project, and one routed in the finest tradition of Socialism, but the NHS is for the scrapheap.

2. BBC
Again, the BBC was built for another time.  The BBC had a monopoly on (legal) radio transmissions and the only television channel for years but the era of mass consumerism has brought a clutch of multi-national media firms into the fray.  In the modern world how can the BBC stand up to BSkyB in the UK and various outfits across the world?  Furthermore the British people will start to resent having to pay for the BBC when they spend all their time watching Sports and Movies the BBC can't afford to provide for people.

Indeed Sports is an area where the BBC are losing their way already, they have lost full coverage and exclusivity on pretty much their whole programme these days, it is only Wimbledon that will be with them in 20 years.

This is before we even consider the terrible publicity that Operation Yewtree has brought on the national corporation.  The mass cover up looks rotten to the core, and the current Government will jump at the chance to remind people that the BBC is far from perfect and almost as full of middle class white guys as the Tory party.

Scarlet suspects a large amount of the BBC will be sold off, in 50 years time we will have the BBC World Service, Radios 1-5 and BBC News.

3. Scotland
Scotland will leave the UK, after all if you live in London or the South East you have everything and the Scottish get nothing.

Oh wait, that isn't true, well they will probably leave anyway.

Cecil The Lion

I'm sorry if this one doesn't make much sense today but I'm deeply upset:

#Cecilthelion

We have to ask ourselves why big game hunting exists don't we?  The pursuing and killing of animals for 'the high' we get from it is a pathetic and backward habit.  It is a sad excuse of a thing to do, when rich people from America fly over to Africa for the sole purpose of wiping out a beautiful creature which is one of the few remaining natural marvels of the world.

For goodness sake lets put a stop to this pathetic behaviour, let us enshrine it in international law, please people.  These creatures feel pain, they have minds and they have fear.

If we prick them do they not bleed?

There is a line in all of this, I think Animal Husbandry is a completely reasonable part of humanity. I think we need the likes of meat (I certainly do anyway) but where do you draw the line?  Where do you draw the line?

The people writing death threats I cannot condone, but nor can I condone the slaughter of this beautiful creature.

A tearful Scarlet signs off

Jeremy Corbyn

As someone who tends to sit on the Tory side of the benches my opinion of Jeremy Corbyn shouldn't seem all that relevant, but Scarlet always feels the need to speak out.

So for those of you who haven't noticed the race is on to become the next Leader of the Opposition.  A national representation of our Democratic state the role is one of the most important in the system.

The next leader of the Labour Party will be the most public voice against the Government until the next election (provided bonnie Prince Charlie keeps his mouth shut that is).  There is now a very real possibility that that person will be veteran Labour left winger Jeremy Corbyn.  Jezza is everything Labour was thirty years ago, Scarlet's observations:

The Return of the Left?

Outside Scotland Parliament has near enough lost its bent to the left.  The New Labour bandwagon turned the old party of the unions into a centre right alternative to the Tories, indeed Lady Thatcher once claimed her greatest victory was getting Labour to shift to the right.  

Although many welcomed a shift to the right for Labour it has left the party in nowhere land, these days if you want to vote for a mottled Centre Right you can vote for Cameron and Boris, why would you vote for Labour?  As for the left, well Labour really aren't there anymore, I didn't hear Ed Milliband suggesting any Re-nationalizations or a strengthening of the unions?  Without anything to reach for Labour appears stale and the socialist movement has no-one to vote for.  Could Corbyn bring Socialism back to the agenda on the national table?

#ToriesForCorbyn

What nasty political skulduggery this is.  Many Tories are registering/supporting through media Corbyn in an effort to get Corbyn elected believing he is an unelectable spoof candidate the British public will see through, what a horrifyingly unsporting thing to do.  If you support the Labour Party you should have your say but to feign interest to try and destroy a political party is so vindictive even Lord Archer would be embarrassed.

Secondly what if Corbyn proves popular?  Imagine if the left rise as above and Corbyn gets into number 10 and you as a Tory helped it happen?  What a Muppet you would feel.  Let us leave who is representing Labour to Labour, and then debate their leader on mutual terms.

A Real Opposition

What is the point in an opposition like the current Labour Party?  Yes they rant and rave about Tories and complain about their handling of everything but there is really no ideological reason for this, it is just part of their ploy to get back into power.  If Red Ed was the PM at the moment we would see a cut in the deficit, less public spending and HS2.  Sound familiar?

With Corbyn at the helm we would see a whole new agenda, I'm not saying I would agree with it at all but at least we would have something different on the menu, a leader of the opposition arguing for much higher taxes on the rich and a return of Socialist values.  This might draw some of the protest vote back in, in the last general election Labour/Tory seats in the house are 86%, in 1992 between them they had 93%.  The big parties are losing their support: UKIP, SNP, Greens may be here to stay.  Labour could grab back from all three with the right package.



In spite of all this it seems to me that Andy Burnham will probably edge it, but New Old Labour could be on the agenda in 6 weeks time!

Cyclists

Quite often I begin these things by claiming 'this is not supposed to be a rant', much like the great Mark Kermode the rant tends to bubble over in any case, today Scarlet bangs on about the cyclists and he makes no apologies 'this is a rant'.

Why don't they ride in single file?

Why on earth is this even a problem?  Have you ever seen this insanity?  I certainly have, cyclists regularly ride 2 by 2 whilst cars are stacking up behind them because the cyclists can't make a hill.  I sympathise with the struggles of getting to the top of the hill but WHY? Why would anybody do that?

Why aren't they using the Cycle Lane?

Lets face it, motorists tend not to deal with Cyclists on the Road Network overly well.  The UK didn't invest in Cycling Infrastructure like most of Europe after the war and Britain's roads aren't exactly the widest in the world in any case.  Part of solving this issue was for councils to build hundreds of miles of Cycle Lanes alongside busy roads; flat and well surfaced these are particularly abundant in New Towns.  In certain areas the cyclists appear to snub them!  Anyone who has been behind a cyclist going round a corner with an empty 9 foot wide Cycle Lane to the side must surely have been wound up about this?  What are they doing? ARRRRRRGGGHHHH

Let us face it people, cycling is a fantastic way to get around, and we in Britain are finally starting to embrace it on our Road Network and it is great to see.  Boris Bikes, country tracks being built over old railways it is becoming an excellent and healthy hobby.  For the love of god can we please make sure the cyclists pull their weight on the safety front, after all they are the ones most at risk.

The European Union

Well I imagine most people already have some preconceived notions as to how Scarlet feels about the EU, you're probably not far wrong but this ISN'T A RANT, nor is it time for me to a lay a case out for leaving/staying in the union.  I'm just a blogger...

For those of you who do not know the start of what we all know as the EU today was after the Second World War.  Western Europe had torn itself apart twice in 40 years and the uneasy peace of Waterloo was done for, from the ashes of war came co-operation.  With an eye on the Communists to the East the West came together to unite, to tie their interests together and build a better Europe that could never go to war again.  As Germans haven't found their way into Paris and the British and Spanish aren't fighting over Gibraltar it seems like to an extent the original ambition has been achieved.  There is peace in Western Europe and it is as solid as ever, with NATO tying up the loose ends we seem free of any Military complications, WELL DONE ALL.

Somewhere along the line however something changed, the Common Market became a nation of its own. The EU now has a President, a seat at the G8 and more branches of Government than that bureaucratic hothouse France!  The issue here is that we went from something that was working quite well and accepted to something much bigger with no permissions sought, like it or not (and it seems many do not) our Houses of Parliament now play second fiddle to Brussels on most legislation.  As the Common Market expanded its influence economically and socially the UK quietly accepted it, particularly when Maggie was there demanding concessions for the bits and pieces we didn't like. Nowadays it seems the mild irritations are starting to boil over.

I have travelled to Europe several times in my life and have always enjoyed it, but it seems to me that even though we are in the EU, we don't seem to be really 'in' the EU.  How handy that there is a single currency so you don't need to exchange your cash.... Oh wait we opted out of that.  How handy that there is an agreement which keeps open borders between countries, you can go from one to another without a Passport check.... Oh wait we opted out of that.  This is the root of something that complicates our relationship with the EU completely, for the last 40 years we have picked and chose what we did and didn't want.  Like a Christian picking the nice parts of the Bible the UK has opted out of any major integrated decisions; and now we are too weak to bully more concessions.  The UK is not the player in the EU we believe it to be, not by a long shot.  De Gaulle blocked Britain's entry because he believed we would want to dominate, each day that looks like a slightly more astute observation.

It would seem that the whole of Europe is getting concerned about the super state, but it seems to me that we shouldn't.  The Euro is on the brink of collapse, the Greeks will set a precedent that will soon see the return of the Drachma, the Lira and the Franc.  A smaller diplomatic unit will emerge and Europe will sit in limbo once again.  Sadly it seems you can't please everyone; the UK will leave and the blame game will start, it has been nice working together but it simply isn't going to work.

Scarlet Reflects on the Election

The dust is settling on the most incredible election we have seen since 1992.  Indeed the parallels between this one and 1992 can be drawn across the board however Scarlet isn't going to go into depth about that, that is for the far more intellectual and boring bloggers.  Scarlet is going to sit back with his Bacon Sandwich (as a tribute to the leader of the opposition) and look at the key points after the day after the night after the day of the election.

Narrative

Scarlet posted his vote after work.  This being Scarlets second general election I was surprised by the amount of people about.  It may simply be a case of my arriving at 6pm but the turnout seemed considerably higher than 2010, perhaps a sign?  Scarlet posted his vote and kept well clear of the irritating people who stand outside the polling station and undermine the entire principle of the system.  It amazes me that these people are allowed to stand there, annoying members of the electorate and making them generally feel awkward.  It seems to Scarlet that this is the problem with a party system.  These people are highly beneficial to the Tories, Labour etc.  So why would a Conservative Government get rid of them?

I got home and found that everyone in the house had voted for a different name on the ballot paper, interesting thought I, this seems to be the feeling of the nation at the moment.  Everybody voting for a slightly different party they don't believe in as opposed to the standard everybody voting for the same party they don't belive in.

And so the evening in front of the coverage began (The Scarlet household voted for BBC, you can't beat a bit of Dimbleby with lashings of Nick Robinson), an exit poll and a thunderbolt!  Surely not?  Tories up the other side of 300?  It seemed propesturous and the wily old foxes of Ashdown and Campbell agreed - doubt that happens very often - could DC have achieved this late swing?  Indeed an incredible outcome, we won't know how or why the pollsters got it wrong but my goodness me a shock has run through our nation.  The success of the SNP was long predicted but a Tory majority will stun the UK to its core.  Scarlet thinks it is a bloody good outcome but there are many who will not, the PM has some tricky days ahead of him so I hope he enjoys what will surely be his finest hour.

The UK fading away...

It seems that the Nationalists triumph in Scotland is the latest step toward the breakup of the union.  Scarlet wonders if we will get another general election as the UK?  It really looks that bad.  The SNP party machine has convinced the Scot's that the grass is greener what is the PM to do?

It seems to Scarlet that full fiscal autonomy for the Scot's is the way to go.  It won't last long, Scotland has been mooching off of the English tax payers money for years and i'm sure that the second Scotland is responsible for its own money the reality of life will set in, of course it will all be the fault of the English.  It always is.

Europe

The long awaited EU Referendum is finally going to come.  Cameron's policy of renegotiation will begin straight off the bat, the success of Cameron's renegotiation will be the foundation of whether Britain stays in the EU or not.  Should the Europeans rebuff DC saying 'thems is the rules, like em or not' the British people will react with fury, as a major player in the EU surely we should have a say on policy?  Well if not, sod them we'll go our own way, I'm confident this will be the view of the Daily Mail and it's possible the electorate will rally around this view.  Can the PM bargain with Brussels?  It may well define his second term.

The UKIP vote is still there you know.... There is still plenty of anti EU running about the place, what's going to happen? 

What next for Labour

When Labour elected Ed Milliband there was a feeling around the country "they've picked the wrong one".  The British people have definitely backed this one up; Red Ed was never popular and we've kept him out of Number 10 one wonders how David would've done, or Alan Johnson?

Labour is looking in trouble now, they need to turn to someone to make them look like a modern political unit.  The message of Labour was re-invented by Blair but the Blairite vote might as well go to the Tories now that the smear marks have cleared.  The old left looks dead and buried and where does that leave the party?  One suspects the Labour Party would do well with Alan Johnson at the helm, maybe Labour won't shoot themselves in the foot this time.

An incredible result is in the bag for Cameron but now and the tough times will come thick and fast.  Our PM needs to make the changes before the British people remember how much they don't like him. Good luck Dave, Boris will be combing his hair waiting for his tomorrow.

Voter Turnout

For any given reason it would seem that loads of British people don't vote...

Scarlet has no desire for this to turn into a rant about people who don't vote and why they should really and how they are all enemies of freedom.  Scarlet is just going to lay out a few of the reasons why I think these people don't turn up at the ballot box:

Apathy

Do I vote? No, can't be bothered.  Surely this is the feeling of many British nationals who don't turn up?  Whilst it is not entirely fair to say that everyone who doesn't vote simply doesn't care about what happens on the Governmental front it would certainly appear that in a good few places people merely don't consider it important enough to bother.  Scarlet wonders what these people would do if we were in a police state like North Korea?  Would the apathetic position continue or would it be a case of 'I wouldn't bother voting but I want that to be my choice not theirs' or would they submit?  How often do the apathetic really use their freedom?  The only time we consider freedoms important are when we go to court or engage in political activity (like this here blog), and how many of us do that?  

What difference would my vote make? The (X Party) will just get in anyway

This one is an issue of the system, the dated FPTP system does tend to make safe bets of many seats in our Parliament.  Of course the mainstream parties tend to treat this one with kid gloves, complacency is a big problem in politics and they have to make sure some people actually do turn up or we could get the wrong winner simply because no one bothered to vote for the person everyone actually wanted to win.

They're all as bad as each other

Why would you vote if you thought that all of the candidates were self serving imbeciles?  It seems a fairly good question, most of us consider our politicians corrupt but go and vote for them anyway so shouldn't we just not bother going and wipe our hands of the whole sorry mess?

Scarlet looks at the modern political class and can't disagree with the position.  To get any kind of political pull you need to know the right people and this upper middle class political clique is very much the old boy network of our time.  However it is not the case that they are all like this!  No seriously they're not, if you look at your ballot paper you will in all likelihood find a clean cut candidate amongst the Old Etonians.  You've never heard of these people because nobody votes for the good guys, because all the people who would appreciate them are either voting for the system or staying at home.  Scarlet believes that if you look down the list and see no one worthy of your vote you should do something to show it off, to use the freedom at your fingertips.  You may not wish to stand for election yourself but why not join a party to try and make it better and more inclusive?  Why not start an online blog and at least tell the world what you think?  Perhaps we are getting round to apathy again....

Scarlet will vote tomorrow and Scarlet will await the results with the feelings of a true nerd.  Scarlet will try to hold on to his freedoms because Scarlet cares, but it would appear that many do not.  The question remains will they ever care?  Is the voice of not voting as strong as that of the voter?  Who knows, but tomorrow night the 60% of us that bother will have made a call, and I strongly hope we will vote right and save our nation.

A Video Blog - Scarlet the Atheist

Driving home from a shoot I wondered something, and I couldn't be bothered to write it down:

Why Scarlet will leave if the SNP get in

Just a quick one today, Scarlet needs to get back to checking out the immigration policy of several nations around the world.

It looks more and more likely like Labour will get into bed with the SNP and seize control at the election next week, this may not be the disaster it looks on the face of it in economic terms, at the end of the day Mr Milliband's policies aren't all that bad but there is a bigger threat which concerns Scarlet.  The United Kingdom is predominantly made up of England both in terms of land and in terms of population, it is natural that the English would hold a lot of the cards politically, it has been part of the union since day one and it is fair this way, one person one vote.  A growing nationalist fervour is growing in Scotland, the Scots have remembered that 500 years ago there was some unpleasantness and apparently 300 years of being the same country doesn't quite make up for it.

The SNP exist to break up the UK, that is their top line policy, the SNP care about the people of Scotland and will always put them first, this is the problem on nationalism, this is why the EU hate UKIP, because they don't want to be in Brussels in the first place.  Now it appears that the bias in the system towards local parties as opposed to national appeal (such as UKIP, who will maybe get 3-4 MPs) is going to hand the power in the house to the nationalists.  You cannot blame the people of Scotland, they have been fed this nonsense that in some way everyone in England has a much better life and look North only to give the troublesome Jock's the occasional penny to keep them happy, they have been fed it and they have swallowed it, it is a lot easier to get people to believe your message if you tell them they've been hard done by and could do better.  The simple numbers show how Scotland benefits from being in the UK, ever heard of the Barnett formula?  Ah yes but of course the nuclear submarine base is in Scotland and that is a great burden for the Scots to carry...  But, hang on a minute wasn't it put there to boost employment in the area?  Does it not give Scots stable work?  Seems to me that if they had built it in Scotland the SNP would be calling it another example of Westminster giving work to rich England instead of poor Scotland.

The SNP will overstep their mark, Milliband will be a lame duck and the resentment will start, the English will rebel, they will have enough of it and it seems the United Kingdom will crash down with a thud.  Scarlet has mentioned this before but it is really bothering him now.  To have a small party espousing 19th century nationalist nonsense dominating the commons will be too much to bear, it will be proof that our nation is finally ready to die, an experiment which saw the largest expansion in the history of the world will fall on its face, this is how it ends...

So Scarlet will be off, probably to another nation which has some pride in itself, struggles like recessions bring people together rather than rip them apart, Scarlet may be about to leave our nation, because he loves it too much to see this happen.

I may be wrong, there may be a surprise in the offing, but it appears that the UK is going the way of many nations before it, we are blaming each other rather than working together and it'll cost the UK a patriot, a romantic and a dreamer...

Ed Milliband Vs Scarlet & Our right to be afraid

To say that Ed Milliband has said something that Scarlet doesn't agree with is to say something akin to 'Liverpool and Man United fans has different opinions on Sir Alex Ferguson'.  Scarlet and Ed live at different ends of the political spectrum, but Milliband is a necessity in our nation of open politics and free exchange of belief and ideas.  It is a sadness that yesterday the Leader of the Opposition (maybe our next PM) suggested that these values are not close to him, when he made a comment which stirred every liberal bone is Scarlet's body.

Mr Milliband has committed to 'outlaw' Islamophobia, now I am not one who believes that demeaning someone's religion and/or ideas is something one should make a habit of but we're not talking about hate, crime or evil here, we are talking about our right to be afraid. 

To bring you all up to speed here is the definition of said word by the OED:

Intense dislike or fear of Islam

This article is not about Islam!  This article is about the rights of individuals and about the view of Mr Milliband and the party he represents.  I could run over reasons why it would be legitimate to be afraid of Islam or to actively dislike it but that is not the point of today's post, the point is to establish how vital our right to be afraid is to us.  We must be allowed to be afraid in the United Kingdom, our fear of social and political progression is part of what keeps our society strong and healthy.  

No one is more irritated by the ramblings of the SNP more than Scarlet but they have a voice!  They must have a voice, they must have their chance to stand up and be counted just like everyone else, we are all the same in our land of liberty.  If I want to be afraid of something and post it on Twitter then I am allowed to.   Should I wish to state my position I am able to whatever that position may be, that must be the way of our society, it is absolutely key.  Why is Mr Milliband trying to take these vital ideas away?

I will send a copy of this article to Ed and I hope he will find the time to take a look and reply because he may have chosen his words badly, he may believe that all ideas and all people are equal in our land.  

With the election just over a week away one of the biggest players has chosen to say he will outlaw free thought and free expression of that thought, could 1984 be 2015?  It looks like if you want it to be, vote Labour.

After The Election - What Scarlet Thinks will happen

We are headed for deadlock!

The only certainty is the uncertainty of the entire thing!

To the politically minded like Scarlet the election this time will be fascinating, for everyone else it will be incredibly boring.  Most of the electorate will vote for who they always work for, however the others (the floaters) seem to be evenly spaced in lily pads all over the national pond.  So what is going to happen?  Naturally Scarlet doesn't know, but here is what I think might just happen:

The Tories will do better than we think

It is a tried and tested premise that people don't like being seen as 'Conservative voters'.  As a party of tradition and old values it is often seen as 'the nasty party'.  The Tories have modernised considerably under Cameron but it could take up to a generation for them to shed this image, people simply don't like saying they are going to vote Conservative.  In 1992 the Tories surpised everyone with a last minute jump to secure a 4th majority in 4 elections, we won't see that this time round but they could punch above their polling, the following things could also help them out:
- Typical small Party squeeze - The Tory machine haven't done a great job of making this election look like a choice between Cameron and Milliband, people have found it patronising.  At the end of the day however people will start to turn when the likelihood of Milliband starts to dawn on them, they will abandon UKIP and return half a dozen Tories in key marginals.
- Status Quo - usually being incumbent government is a good way of reducing your support but this time it might not happen.  As people see our nation head towards deadlock they might just vote to leave things as they are, better the devil you know.
- The Papers - The media are likely to favour Cameron, as in 1992 we could see a decisive swing if the papers let their thoughts known.

The SNP Will irritate the English

It would appear that South of the border we haven't noticed our the SNP very much, they wish to break up the UK but they do all their campaigning in Scotland so really the rest of the UK really aren't that bothered, well they're about to be a key player in Westminster. We all know that UKIP exist to remove the UK from the EU, well the SNP exist to remove Scotland from the UK.  They tried to convince the Scots to leave and they failed, what is the next step I wonder?
1. Ignore the democratic will of the Scots (Have another vote and carry on until you get the answer you want)
or
2. Irritate the English until they want out of the UK and the whole thing collapes on its face.

It may not be SNP Policy to do either of these things, perhaps it is paranoia from South of the Border, but all we need is for a few thousand to suspect it and the anti-SNP fervour will grip and there will be a reaction North of the border, the union is in danger, tread carefully all.

All 3 major party leaders will be looking down

It will be after this election that all 3 main party leaders could see themselves under threat within their own parties.  Should Cameron win he will serve out his second term but will then need to be diplomatic as his replacement gains ground in the party, the smart money is on Boris but watch out for George Osbourne.

The Liberal Democrats will probably have fallen from 23% of the vote in 2010 to only the fourth biggest party in terms of seats.  Nick Clegg got the Lib Dems in government and got their agenda into the cabinet but his tenure as leader has been disastrous for the party, they will be gutted at this election and may will come fifth in the popular vote.  Surely whatever happens it will be time for Cleggy to step down.

Ed Milliband is never going to do well out of this...  Should he bargain his way into Number 10 it will be perhaps the most unpopular government since the death of Cromwell before he has even started.  Milliband will need the SNP a heck of a lot more than he will need them, he'll be a lame duck PM and will be remembered for being weak from day one.  If Red Ed loses the election then there is no way Labour will want 5 more years of him, sorry Ed you simply don't cut it.



It's going to be a very interesting election, or so Scarlet thinks, trouble is he can't see a way the British People are going to come out on top....
 

Scarlet the Atheist - Irritating Questions

Scarlet is an atheist.  Scarlet doesn't talk about it all that much on a day to day basis but it seems that faith plays a big part in the lives of people across the world.  Just to clarify when Scarlet says 'faith' he means the belief which a person has in a supernatural entity which is in someway 'in control' of the universe.  I could well go further and explain what I mean with all the other words I say but I just thought it was worth making sure you readers know where I am when I say I have no 'faith'.

I would also like to address what I mean by 'atheist' before moving on to the main purpose of today's post as this could well lead to further confusion later on.  When I say I am an atheist I say that I do not believe that there is 'a god', I am not saying that there is no god, simply that I do not believe in what most people call 'a god'.  I do not believe in god because I do not believe that there is a reason to do so.

So today I'd like to explain my position through answering a series of questions which I and many atheists have been asked loads of times, many many times:

Why do you hate God?

We reach a bit of an issue here because you are immediately not understanding my position if you ask me this question.  I don't believe that god exists therefore I cannot openly profess to like/dislike this individual.  Scarlet doesn't hate god, Scarlet doesn't believe in God.

If Scarlet did believe in God would Scarlet love god?  No, if Scarlet believed in god he would not be very happy for a few reasons:
- Why does this God demand humanity believe yet place doubt it their mind?
- Why does this God leave behind so many inaccurate descriptions of his will?  if the God of the Qu'ran exists then the Bible is wrong etc.
- Why does God not interfere and stop the evil?  If I was in a position to cure AIDS, I would do it with absolutely no hesitation whatsoever.  The same goes with cancer and every single thing which brings pain to human beings or indeed everything which feels it.  If God existed it would be sitting watching all this, doing nothing about it.  So no, I don't hate god, but I would be very concerned about his motives if I did believe.

Isn't it a bigger leap of faith to be an Atheist?

The problem with this one is that I think people tend to misunderstand my position on the central point here.  A lot of believers think that 'if you are an atheist then something must have come from nothing', you are not listening to what I write.  (Can anyone listen to words, surely I mean read?)  I DON'T KNOW, I simply do not know where the universe came from, and that is my attitude towards loads of things and it is what feeds me to learn more.  When Darwin looked at the variety of life he thought 'I DON'T KNOW HOW THIS HAPPENED', the same goes for Newton and the Apple.  If we immediately subscribe to the premise of 'I DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS, THEREFORE IT WAS GOD' we start on a slippery slope.

If you tell me that there is a god you make a claim, when you tell me you believe this with no reason other than 'because you do'  you are making a leap of faith, I do not do this, tell me if I do.

Where do you get your morality from?

 From my life experiences and from humanist ideals.  I get my morality from the warm feeling I get when I make someone smile, from the pain I feel when I see someone suffering.  Many ideas in religious texts are not what many reasonably minded people would call moral, at least not in the Western World in any case.  Atheists and secular people ground their morality each individually just like everyone but we don't use obscure passages of text to justify evil and we don't believe in a 'cosmic justice'.

  Ok I get it, your an Atheist why do you bother going on about it?

This one really does leave a sour taste in Scarlet's mouth.  What if we turn the question around and ask a deeply religious person why they wear a cross around their neck or a turban on their head?

I abhor so many elements of religion and should this post be popular I may just spend a few posts ranting about it but my main purpose here is to spread the word of positive atheism.  To think that someone may read this post and feel more comfortable with how they feel, it would be incredible to see that. 

To Thine Ownself Be True.

Be yourself and love your life, it is (probably!) the only one you are going to get.

Defence Cuts

Scarlet looked out of the office window and down into Portsmouth Harbour, once the most important Naval Port in the world it all made for quite a distressing sight.  2 or 3 cross channel ferries were moored up taking on passengers and 2 Vessels of the Royal Navy sat in the harbour, not too bad thought I; an aircraft carrier and a smaller boat (later turned out to be a destroyer).  My heart sank when the Guy next to me announced that they were both there for the long haul.  The Aircraft Carrier retired, to be preserved for the nation. The Destroyer now a training vessel.  So it has come to this, this was no quiet day for Portsmouth Harbour, this is the Royal Navy these days, the Navy that ruled the waves for a hundred years has started to rot around us.

Before we move on it is important to note that Scarlet isn't glorifying The British Empire, but at the time the armed forces meant something to us as a nation, could we not preserve this element of our culture in the modern world?  Granted, we are no longer defending territory representing a quarter of the world but can we really say that we don't need a sizable Army, Navy and Air Force anymore?  The threat to the United Kingdom of direct invasion may not seem that great but bear in mind that we have had to defend British territory from invasion in the last 40 years, which is no time in terms of a defence strategy.  Let us not forget the environment around us also, the Russians are parked up on the Ukrainian border, the Iranians are working with nuclear reactors and let us not forget the ISIS situation; which may ultimately require British intervention, to sort out the British who have gone over there to fight for the other side if nothing else.

At the onset on the Second World War the Royal Navy numbered more 300 ships, today it is less than 80, our other armed forces have been similarly gutted but we have entered a new world where British interests are safe with less presence from our armed forces needed, but are we?

If we push aside the actual defence element just for a moment there are still reasons for us to keep our armed forces ticking over, the first which comes to mind is the education side of things.  This isn't going to be a 'bring back national service' rant, I'm just making the point that a lot of people are concerned about a lack of work ethic from many young people in the UK today, why not step up the drive and suggest that people on long term benefits join the Naval reserve or train to be Army Medics?  Our prisons are overcrowded, you can't tell me that the old rule of Borstal or Army might not help a few young people on the right track.  Also more and more people are worried about immigration, would these people be concerned about immigrants if they were serving the crown in the RAF?  I'm not talking about forcing anyone into armed combat, but there is admin work needs doing surely and Let us at least explore the option.

The other reason to keep the drive going is technology.  Nuclear Fission, the computer, the jet engine they were all developed by nations with thriving Military environments, as a nation we have developed great inventions, whilst we are spending on defence we can increase our breakthrough in the technological world and maybe invent a superb new solar powered thingy whilst at it.

Maybe it is just that looking out a window on a gloomy day I wanted to see something more exciting, but it seems to Scarlet that it is worth paying an extra penny in the pound to see more planes in the sky over Cornwall, more ships in dock at Pompey and more troops on Salisbury Plain ready to defend our nation at whatever may come.

Great Prime Ministers

A nation that hates its politicians is not a rare thing as Scarlet has previously said, even the politicians we have taken a shine for over the years tend to have negative approval ratings and we tend not to remember them with too much honour.  The cream of the crop politically are Prime Ministers, the political head of the nation, the person who controls the red button and the lot.  The most remembered national heroes tend to be soldiers or writers and the like, but we have had some great Prime Ministers in our time, here are a few: (NOTE Scarlet has very strong political opinions as regular readers know, this may be reflected in this post)

Benjamin Disraeli Conservative

Finest Hour: Formation of One Nation Conservatism
Greatest honour: Statue in Parliament Square, Later Earl of Beaconsfield
Summary:  Disraeli was at the front of the one nation conservative movement.  This particular ideological bent dominated the Conservative position for over 100 years.  Born to Jewish parents Disraeli was the first ethnic minority appointed to the lofty position of head of government.  There is no doubt that he helped swing the Great Game toward British interests.  A renowned novelist and a competent Chancellor of the Exchequer, Disraeli had more than one string to his bow.

Winston Churchill Conservative

Finest Hour: Leading Britain to victory in WW2
Greatest honour: State Funeral
Summary: Winston was a staggering man.  Born to the nobility Churchill will always be remembered for his charismatic words demanding the British keep an eye on the NAZI's in the 1930's and for his determination that the British would defeat the Germans and push the invaders all the way back to Berlin.  Churchill was not without his faults, an imperialist who wasn't a fan of the idea of a multicultural Britain he was certainly a man of his time.  No one has ever been as BIG as Churchill politically, no one will ever bring across the same feeling of loyalty amongst the British people and no one will ever command as much respect as the man who demanded every Briton to stand up and be counted and rallied the people of the nation to their finest hour.

Clement Attlee Labour

Finest Hour: Formation of the National Health Service
Greatest Honour: Buried at Westminster Abbey
Summary: After serving as Churchill's deputy in the war Attlee won a landslide in 1945 and oversaw the birth of Britain's socialist Economy and the end of the British Empire.  A calm and unassuming man Attlee was popular for his consensual style and he laid the groundwork of how Britain would work for 30 years.  It was during the Attlee years that Britain really ramped up her Welfare state, a move incredibly popular at the time.  Attlee regularly tops polls for Labour Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom and led Britain well through a socialist revolution.

Margaret Thatcher Conservative

Finest Hour: Facing down the miners
Greatest honour: HM the Queen in attendance at her funeral
Summary: No one person has commanded such divided opinion in the history of our country more than Maggie.  The 'Iron Lady' overcame the odds to lead a major political party despite being a woman (still an issue back then) and went one more by getting the keys to Number 10 in 1979.  Maggie had an agenda and was ruthless and efficient in carrying it out, many people rebelled against her radical agenda but she pushed on, determined that she was building a better tomorrow.

Whether we agree with the actions of Mrs T she was an emblem of change and maybe our strongest ever leader on the global stage facing down the rest of the EC and helping bring an end to the Cold War.  Scarlet suspects that Maggie will be remembered as the leader who brought Britain (sometimes kicking and screaming) back to the big stage.

The Land of the Free: The American Dream from England

There is an iconography to the American view of freedom.  The Lincoln Memorial & The White House. The Stars and Stripes hanging from a pole with pride everywhere from Honolulu to Maine.  The fundamental principle of freedom and liberty in the United States is a national institution in its own right, a precious jewel in the crown of the worlds most powerful republic.  Our friends across the pond could not be more different to us in the way in which they celebrate their freedom.  The Americans are enthusiastic, excited and proud of their equality, their rights and their national duty under god, the British reluctantly vote every few years and cling on to their old ways, after all changing all that would be far too much bother.

In the opening lines of A Tale of Two Cities Dickens drew a comparison between Britain and France.  In a slightly less significant article tonight I present to you the differences between the United Kingdom and the United States in the systems, and how our cultural bond is separated in the political sphere.

Constitution

The Constitution of the United States is the shortest document of its kind in the world, it is a clear and concise reflection of the ultimate value of American society and the Americans quite correctly take considerable pride in the document and her story.  Perhaps the greatest achievement of America's supreme law is that she has been amended only 27 times in her history; there is no perfect system - particularly in law - but the United States hold a document which is near enough theoretically perfect; the Constitution is everywhere in America.

Most British people on the other hand believe that we don't have a constitution, we do have one it just isn't very good.  Various statutes and drafts of Westminster Law as well as other documents like Magna Carta and the European Convention on Human Rights make up a bizarre mix of what Governments do and what they can't do.  In the UK 800 years of Magna Carta are passing, there have been a few bits and pieces on the television but most people won't even notice, could you imagine such a thing happening in the US, indeed I wouldn't be surprised if our cousins were already making a bigger fuss of Magna Carta than we do.

President/Monarch

If you know your history you will know that the role of the monarchy is central to how the United States came about.  A certain dislike of George III (but, to be fair he was insane) was prevalent in the colonies when independence was asserted and since then the United States have plugged this gap with a presidency.  Since 1776 the monarch has changed in the UK, slowly but surely the role of the monarch diminished until it became the constitutional symbol of tradition it is today.  Yet an idea as big as a king or queen doesn't just diminish and the role of president has grown in its own way, the President has much in common with the crown these days:
- Head of State
- Iconic i.e. appears on money, in images of national pride and physical institutions associated with the office.  Such as The White House being as recognisable as Buckingham Palace.
- Top family - The American next of kin to the President is called the first lady, it seems to Scarlet that this implies a social hierarchy centred around the office.  In the United Kingdom the royal family are at the top of an aristocratic class in a clearly defined socio economic unit.

I'm not trying to say that the President and the Queen are the same, they are clearly very different roles both in law and in social convention it is simply interesting to see the clear influence of the British system on the American one.

The key difference is in the right to remove the President from office, this basis of the people electing the top man/woman and then removing them is entrenched in law and again it is in clear law, the role of the monarch in the UK is much more abstract.  Technically speaking the Queen appoints the Prime Minister, she doesn't have to pay any attention to the election result legally, she just does!

National Iconography

The 2 points I have discussed both suggest that image is important in the American political setup and there can be no doubt that the American love for image and icons runs through the system.  The Americans through neccesity must draw their images and icons from the system around them because it is a very new country and the system as our cousins know it is really the only one their nation has ever needed.  When we think of emblems of the American Political ideal we don't just look at the two I have suggested but others which ride through their nation and there are always differences from our own so it seems:

- Uncle Sam - A national embodiment of the state, we don't personify the state in the UK, we have Britannia and John Bull but no one has heard of these for hundreds of years!

- The Stars and Stripes - There is a huge amount of pride for the flag in the United States.  Indeed even the confederate flag is loved by millions in the South, the physical embodiment of the nation in colour flying proudly is beautiful to our friends in the United States.  There can be no doubt that the United Kingdom doesn't have this same level of pride, our Union Jack is familiar across the planet as a symbol of small nations working together to create a greater state, but we really don't care.

There are differences in our nations and our political, economic and social views but we are one in our ideas of freedom, liberty and honour.  Our nations our united in a special relationship that shines across the world as a beacon of equality, trust and mututal respect. 

Again I think of our beautiful land of tradition, where the freedom lives through thousands of years of slow progression.

Again I think of a beautiful land where the liberty was fought for and won and laid out before the people in words.

To the United Kingdom and the United States, two lands divided in culture and united in love.

The Disenchantment

I have recently suggested that the UKIP vote is stemming from a disenchanted political class in the United Kingdom, how do we unpack as big a question as why are people annoyed with the politicians? 

People in this country and indeed the free world in general have always been loath to take a liking to politician. , We don't like our politicians.   This has been true for years, people hated the mainstream political setup but only now it would appear people have had enough.  The Scots are uniting under a banner of Nationalism and the rest of the country are flirting with UKIP and some even looking at the Greens with a genuine belief that they may bring us something a little different.  Why now?  Here is a few reasons why it may be...

The State of the Economy

I find it highly unlikely that Scarlet is going to win an award for original thinking for this one but it remains a pressing factor on many people.  In the past if Labour or the Tories messed up we handed things over to the other lot for a few years to sort it out, it would appear that the formula has become stale with the current situation.  There is a general consensus amongst the country that the Blair/Brown years are what threw the economy on the rocks this time round, an emphasis on borrowing and lack of regulation of the banking sector pushed things through the floor.  Naturally the British people duly elected the Tories to sort it out but this time it was different for 2 considerably important reasons:
1. The Conservatives didn't get a majority - It was a bizarre election last time round which pushed the Tories into bed with the Lib Dems; the requirement of Liberal Democrats in the government has made it a little more difficult for the Tories to roll out their agenda, there is no doubt that without the Liberal influence we would have seen a very different plan to sort the economy.  Whether it would've worked or not is anyones guess but there is no denying that we have seen a watered down plan this time round.
2. They haven't finished the job - A very strong feeling exists in the country that even though the economy is sorting itself out the British people aren't feeling the benefit from it; unemployment is in a better state now but is still high.  The pound isn't doing anything terribly impressive on the global stage and interest rates are planted at an incredibly low rate.  Why give this lot another chance?  Why not try something new?

Population Boom

As a young man with no children I can't claim to know all that much about the struggle for school places and other boring things which parents bang on about at the park to other parents but even Scarlet notices that there are some issues here.

Our services and our inability to future proof ourselves from service shortages, mainly due to overpopulation.  At the risk of sounding incredibly old back in my day they came to pick up your bins once a week, there were two post deliveries a day and you could drive for more than five miles without a new housing estate being built along the side of the road.  The public transport network is overcrowded, the roads are jammed up and the queues at A&E are getting longer.  There are those of us that think that increasing public spending would solve most of these issues but there is a prevailing opinion venturing forth that its getting a bit crowded around here.

Naturally many on the right point the finger at immigration "It is too high", "We've let too many in".  Scarlet isn't going to express an opinion on this one, its for people to read the numbers and see what they think but there are people aplenty being born across the world, more mouths than food and more homeless than houses.  The suggestion that more people are welcome in the UK is very disconcerting to many.

Welfare Class

Whilst Scarlet is on the topic of overcrowding a lot of people appear to be worried about a perceived welfare class, a large group of the population completely reliant upon the nanny state to get about on a day to day basis.  Scarlet has worked in a Job Centre and has met the people who have another baby to top up the benefits and subscribe to Sky and buy 20 cigarettes a day but need a crisis payment to pay to put food on the table.  These people represent a tiny percentage of the people on benefits but it could be argued that one family choosing benefits as a lifestyle over work is too many.

The welfare state has given the United Kingdom the unenviable problem of being labelled a nation of scroungers by her own people, this tends to irritate the people who actually do go to work and receive little subsidy from the Government, it would appear that doing things the right way gets you nowhere, or so the UKIPpers seem to believe.

European Union

 Britain has always had an interesting role in the EU; first we wanted to stay out, then we desperately wanted to be in, then Maggie wanted us in but lodged in the doorway.  These days Brussels tends to bear a lot of stick for everything which is wrong with our nation, the growth of UKIP shows the desire for direct self determination is building in England and the SNP's success North of the border implies that the Scot's want to draw in.  More and more people across the entire of Europe are considering the great European experiment  to have failed them, old loyalties have stayed true in Greece, Italy, Catalunya and in the UK too as the desire to take control of things as a nation as opposed to a super state grips the continent.

We Brits have always distrusted everything over our narrowest of channels, feeling more comfortable talking to our friends in the United States, the disenchantment has reached a junction with Europe as we are no longer the biggest player, do the British wish to remain in?  I don't know, do you?

Our politicians are overdue for a good shake up, this is what the British people seem to think, the last time our Political structure split like this the Liberal Party fell, will it be the Liberals who lose out again?  No one knows what will happen, but after the election in a few weeks time I fully expect that politically our nation will never be the same again.

UKIP: 3 Reasons why we shouldn't be worried & 3 Reasons why we should be

British Politics has a new marmite, as the BBC remove their biggest icon of political incorrectness (our friend M. Clarkson) another beacon of anti-establishment is running through our society, if you dislike Mr Farage and the United Kingdom Independence Party as they are seldom known you may wish to scroll down a little where they get a good bashing but for now let us take a look at why Mr Farage and his lot are worth having around:

Not Extremists

When it comes down to it, UKIP aren't extremists.  UKIP are further to the right than the political mainstream but 20 years ago they may as well have been the Tory party indeed UKIP is more influenced by the Thatcher years than the modern conservatives. Let us remind ourselves how popular that Government was, Thatcher tops pretty much every even opinion poll conducted on British PM's, and Mr Farage's party represent many of the core values of that government, particularly now that the left of the Tory party are in charge.

You will hear many comments from many sources that UKIP are 'racist' political party but this really doesn't hold any water.  It seems a given that racists will vote for UKIP because of their role to the right of our spectrum but the party in itself can make quite a convincing case for its position of racial equality.  UKIP will throw any public racists out of its party through a clear and open internal procedure which Mr Farage claims works very well at ferreting them out.  Secondly UKIP claims that its central goal (i.e. Leave the EU) is to remove an organisation which is indirectly racist in its own way.  UKIP claim that the freedom of movement principle is in itself a racist policy as it opens the door to millions of Europeans and that in itself discourages potential migrants from other traditional immigration powerhouses to the UK, nations in the commonwealth.  All in all UKIP are a little beyond the mainstream and they will attract the extermist vote but to claim that the UKIP vote are a bigoted ractist bunch of uneducated people is to do this party no harm at all and only angers them and makes them more likely to vote UKIP.

Look at the French

The rise of UKIP has come about with considerable disenchantment with a percieved 'political class', most UKIP voters will be doing so to try and show that they have had enough of Milliband, Clegg and Cameron who are considered out of touch, middle class and not 'real' enough for most people.  This is also the feeling across the channel, albeit backed up by the terrible economic outlook.  It is the case though that while the British are turning to Nigel and his 'Peoples army' the French appear to be turning to the Front National.  The latest hot thing on the French politic palate truly is a worrying prospect, a strident believer in French individuality Madame Le Pen is determined to bring the death penalty, the slow removal of the welfare state and remove the right of dual citizenship to French nationals. This is before we consider the Greeks whose new government are dredging up 70 years of history in a desperate attempt to renege on their international responsiblities.  All in all, 16% of the UK electorate voting for UKIP doesn't seem all that extreme now does it?

Patriotic

Britain is infamously unpatrotice about itself.  There is a variety of reasons why British nationalism is considered a little bit embarrasing, the last time we allowed patriotic fervour to catch on without the German army parked on the channel we got a bit megalomanical and took over a quarter of the world and imperialism isn't as cool as it was 200 years ago.  Whether it is hangover of this or the general blase attitude of the British mentality but we tend not to be too proud.  Nigel and UKIP are proud, they love Britain and want to seize the disenchanted into a united front of nationalism to return the most important legal house of the UK to London.  Whilst the return of nationalism may not be an overtly good thing, it looks like pride is back on the menu in British Politics and that wouldn't be unwelcome to most of the British people unless Scarler is misreading the game a little.

Now for the much more fun to right bit, this is what is why we should be worried, and I am going to take all 3 of these points straight from their website:

UKIP will amend the smoking ban to give pubs and clubs the choice to open smoking rooms properly ventilated and separated from non-smoking areas.   

The smoking ban has been one of the great successes of modern times, this is a clear attempt to get the smoker vote and will be appalling for public health 'treating smoking as a second class habit' has worked to get smoking made less accepted and it has helped our nation greatly.  I say we stick with it.

Inheritance tax will be abolished

Right now Inheritance tax only affects the richest and this would be a serious surge to the right.
  

Ending the EU freedom of movement of People

Now this one is a little obvious but this EU principle is actually very convieniant for the British people over the years, there are plenty of British people living across Europe (particularly in Spain) and even though the free movement premise isn't perfect for those people it is certainly an incredibly easy option for life and it could be very nasty for our expats living out on the continent.

Scarlet isn't sure what to make of UKIP and her voters, but it appears to me that they don't really seem worse than the average political party in the UK.

The end of First Past the Post

It would appear the birth of multi party politics for the first time in well over a century is upon us in the United Kingdom.  As SNP, UKIP and even the Greens look to press home gains in the national polls it looks as if only the SNP will benefit from their boom in the polls, as the dated First Past the Post system goes on being a long ignored symbol of everything wrong with our political system

So Scarlet has accused our electoral system of being undemocratic?  Can he back it up?  Of course he can, let us take 1983 as an example, here are the key results with all votes counted:

	% Vote	% Seats
Conservatives	42.4	61.1
Labour	27.6	32.2
Liberal-SDP	25.4	4.5

So here we see everything wrong with the system.  Mrs Thatcher's Tories win less than half of the votes and a huge majority in the house, the Tories control almost all actions of British Law and the Government for several years.  As far as I'm concerned this isn't even the worrying part of it (then again as an arch tory, I wouldn't) the worry lies in the absence of the Liberal SDP alliance in parliament (who are there but have no clout).  As you can see if you wanted to create a government representative of more than half of the votes you need the Tories to buddy up with another party yet no such undertaking was ever neccessary.  This would be excusable if not for the fact that this has been the case in almost every single election in British electoral history.  Churchill, Macmillan, Wilson, Blair not one of them won more than half the vote in a single election, so why keep the system?

Well for many years the system has been considered again and again but there are a couple of points in favour of first past the post.  The most obvious reason which comes to mind is that First Past the Post has protected the big parties very well over the years, the Labour vote collapse in 1983 but the system still gave them more than they deserved with 27.6 of vote and 32.2% of the seats.  Likewise the Tories have benefited in the past but the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and now the Greens will all fall foul of the system.

The other reason often thrown about for keeping First Past the Post is that it often gives us a strong Government, even though it is never what the people of the UK have voted for in the first place.  This may seem a fascist argument but it works out, a strong government is generally a better one, even if it is controversial, provided there are checks and balances of some kind on them and the electorate are still vital to the system.  If the vote is going to be divided up into chunks of 20-40% for the bigger parties we would never get a storng government, indeed this sytems seemed best for many years but now I would argue the tide has turned on this argument.  Here is a poll  from today for expected vote percentage:

	% Vote
Conservatives	34
Labour	34
Liberal Democrats	7
SNP	4
UKIP	14
Green	5
Others	2

Now the first thing that you will probably notice is the squeeze at the top, where would expect one of the two main parties to crack 40% as little as ten years ago the system has opened up, it looks like we will get no clear winner from an election with this kind of spread.  We now reach the time at which it is neccessary to make uneasy allegiances and the most simple way to do this is to draw a line between left and right, the table then broadly looks like this:

Left

% Vote

Right

% Vote

Labour

51

Conservative

49

Liberal Democrat

UKIP

Green

½ Other

SNP

½ Other

With a typical 1% opinion poll margin of error it seems that the nation is heading for electoral stalemate, or at least that is what the polls would imply, near enough a straight down the middle tie, a very unstable government is what the people appear to want, however the projected seat totals when split to left and right don't add up to 325 each, instead we get this:

	Seats
Left	348
Right	302

  Now obvioulsy this is pure conjecture from Scarlet but it looks alarmingly like the right could be underrepresented at the next parliament.  Many British social values are lurching to the right on things such as benefits, crime and immigration we could see the resentment build, particularly if the left's leader is the current leader of the opposition whose personal poll ratings are amongst the lowest for a serious candidate for PM in years.

 So I ask the people of the United Kingdom, is it time to change the system?  Or do we keep calm? Do we invoke the spirit of Proportional Representation or tow the line again?

The SNP and the death of the UK

The situation we find ourselves in these days is laughable...

To begin a blog about politics by making a general and incredibly depressing single sentence may not be the best way to draw viewers in but you would be hard pressed not to look at the British political layout 3 weeks before an election and not either laugh or cry.

For those of you interested enough a well researched website from today projects the following:

Conservatives		286
Labour		271
SNP		43
Liberal Democrats		26
UKIP		1

It would appear at a glance that the only way to see a stable Government (which the UK clearly needs) is for a grand coalition of the left: Labour, Lib Dem, SNP.  I will come on to the abject horror of Mr Milliband in number 10 in another post because today is not the day for me to ratchet up my blood pressure unnecessarily.  My worry instead centres on the SNP, heroes of Scottish nationalists and the real winners from five years of austerity.

The Scottish National Party are still reeling from the disappointment of losing an independence referendum, or so you may think in fact the best possible thing happened for them.  Alex Salmond promised the people of Scotland the glory of a modern social Democratic utopia, now he walks away not having to make good on a single promise he has made, the people of Scotland voted to stay in the United Kingdom but - of course - that was due to a load of half arsed promises from London and scaremongering.  As Mr Salmond waved goodbye as first minister of Scotland he played the martyr who couldn't quite get his dream, as he did so he licked his lips as he realised that it was the best end to the story he could have hoped for.

You see the SNP have tapped into some latent tensions with the English that some of the Scots have had over the last three hundred years or so, re awakened by an unpopular regime north of the border.  For some peculiar reasons our cousins in Scotland seem to think they are getting a bad deal out of the UK, one simply has to point to the Barnett formula  to identify that the Scots are really doing quite well from the arrangement....  Then there is the history, you know the English royal family were responsible for the death of the Queen of Scotland 500 years or so ago.  If you really wish to dredge up history should we not consider the fact that the Acts of Union were a bailout deal to the people of Scotland in the first place?  Scotland was a bankrupt little nation, within one hundred years she was at the sharp end of the largest empire ever known.

Scarlet isn't saying this to light the flame of anger in the heart of patriotic Scot's.  Scarlet is wondering why the English aren't getting annoyed by this?  We do we not care?  Could it be the classic 'passive' English attitude?  The same attitude which has seen our country fill up without enough new roads, schools, hospitals, homes and jobs?  Could it be that we simply do not care?

Whichever way you perceive what is going to happen it seems inevitable that the United Kingdom is slowly tearing itself apart.  The Scot's are annoyed and want more power in Edinburgh and less in London.  The English vote is split and weak, should England unite in the next few weeks the only way it can go is to top up the Conservatives to 300 seats or so, enough to keep Mr Cameron in Number 10; and we all know what Scotland think of the Tories...

Scarlet may be wrong, our best days may be ahead, but it seems to me that the beginning of the end is here.