After The Election - What Scarlet Thinks will happen

We are headed for deadlock!

The only certainty is the uncertainty of the entire thing!

To the politically minded like Scarlet the election this time will be fascinating, for everyone else it will be incredibly boring.  Most of the electorate will vote for who they always work for, however the others (the floaters) seem to be evenly spaced in lily pads all over the national pond.  So what is going to happen?  Naturally Scarlet doesn't know, but here is what I think might just happen:

The Tories will do better than we think

It is a tried and tested premise that people don't like being seen as 'Conservative voters'.  As a party of tradition and old values it is often seen as 'the nasty party'.  The Tories have modernised considerably under Cameron but it could take up to a generation for them to shed this image, people simply don't like saying they are going to vote Conservative.  In 1992 the Tories surpised everyone with a last minute jump to secure a 4th majority in 4 elections, we won't see that this time round but they could punch above their polling, the following things could also help them out:
- Typical small Party squeeze - The Tory machine haven't done a great job of making this election look like a choice between Cameron and Milliband, people have found it patronising.  At the end of the day however people will start to turn when the likelihood of Milliband starts to dawn on them, they will abandon UKIP and return half a dozen Tories in key marginals.
- Status Quo - usually being incumbent government is a good way of reducing your support but this time it might not happen.  As people see our nation head towards deadlock they might just vote to leave things as they are, better the devil you know.
- The Papers - The media are likely to favour Cameron, as in 1992 we could see a decisive swing if the papers let their thoughts known.

The SNP Will irritate the English

It would appear that South of the border we haven't noticed our the SNP very much, they wish to break up the UK but they do all their campaigning in Scotland so really the rest of the UK really aren't that bothered, well they're about to be a key player in Westminster. We all know that UKIP exist to remove the UK from the EU, well the SNP exist to remove Scotland from the UK.  They tried to convince the Scots to leave and they failed, what is the next step I wonder?
1. Ignore the democratic will of the Scots (Have another vote and carry on until you get the answer you want)
or
2. Irritate the English until they want out of the UK and the whole thing collapes on its face.

It may not be SNP Policy to do either of these things, perhaps it is paranoia from South of the Border, but all we need is for a few thousand to suspect it and the anti-SNP fervour will grip and there will be a reaction North of the border, the union is in danger, tread carefully all.

All 3 major party leaders will be looking down

It will be after this election that all 3 main party leaders could see themselves under threat within their own parties.  Should Cameron win he will serve out his second term but will then need to be diplomatic as his replacement gains ground in the party, the smart money is on Boris but watch out for George Osbourne.

The Liberal Democrats will probably have fallen from 23% of the vote in 2010 to only the fourth biggest party in terms of seats.  Nick Clegg got the Lib Dems in government and got their agenda into the cabinet but his tenure as leader has been disastrous for the party, they will be gutted at this election and may will come fifth in the popular vote.  Surely whatever happens it will be time for Cleggy to step down.

Ed Milliband is never going to do well out of this...  Should he bargain his way into Number 10 it will be perhaps the most unpopular government since the death of Cromwell before he has even started.  Milliband will need the SNP a heck of a lot more than he will need them, he'll be a lame duck PM and will be remembered for being weak from day one.  If Red Ed loses the election then there is no way Labour will want 5 more years of him, sorry Ed you simply don't cut it.



It's going to be a very interesting election, or so Scarlet thinks, trouble is he can't see a way the British People are going to come out on top....