Scarlet Reflects on the Election

The dust is settling on the most incredible election we have seen since 1992.  Indeed the parallels between this one and 1992 can be drawn across the board however Scarlet isn't going to go into depth about that, that is for the far more intellectual and boring bloggers.  Scarlet is going to sit back with his Bacon Sandwich (as a tribute to the leader of the opposition) and look at the key points after the day after the night after the day of the election.

Narrative

Scarlet posted his vote after work.  This being Scarlets second general election I was surprised by the amount of people about.  It may simply be a case of my arriving at 6pm but the turnout seemed considerably higher than 2010, perhaps a sign?  Scarlet posted his vote and kept well clear of the irritating people who stand outside the polling station and undermine the entire principle of the system.  It amazes me that these people are allowed to stand there, annoying members of the electorate and making them generally feel awkward.  It seems to Scarlet that this is the problem with a party system.  These people are highly beneficial to the Tories, Labour etc.  So why would a Conservative Government get rid of them?

I got home and found that everyone in the house had voted for a different name on the ballot paper, interesting thought I, this seems to be the feeling of the nation at the moment.  Everybody voting for a slightly different party they don't believe in as opposed to the standard everybody voting for the same party they don't belive in.

And so the evening in front of the coverage began (The Scarlet household voted for BBC, you can't beat a bit of Dimbleby with lashings of Nick Robinson), an exit poll and a thunderbolt!  Surely not?  Tories up the other side of 300?  It seemed propesturous and the wily old foxes of Ashdown and Campbell agreed - doubt that happens very often - could DC have achieved this late swing?  Indeed an incredible outcome, we won't know how or why the pollsters got it wrong but my goodness me a shock has run through our nation.  The success of the SNP was long predicted but a Tory majority will stun the UK to its core.  Scarlet thinks it is a bloody good outcome but there are many who will not, the PM has some tricky days ahead of him so I hope he enjoys what will surely be his finest hour.

The UK fading away...

It seems that the Nationalists triumph in Scotland is the latest step toward the breakup of the union.  Scarlet wonders if we will get another general election as the UK?  It really looks that bad.  The SNP party machine has convinced the Scot's that the grass is greener what is the PM to do?

It seems to Scarlet that full fiscal autonomy for the Scot's is the way to go.  It won't last long, Scotland has been mooching off of the English tax payers money for years and i'm sure that the second Scotland is responsible for its own money the reality of life will set in, of course it will all be the fault of the English.  It always is.

Europe

The long awaited EU Referendum is finally going to come.  Cameron's policy of renegotiation will begin straight off the bat, the success of Cameron's renegotiation will be the foundation of whether Britain stays in the EU or not.  Should the Europeans rebuff DC saying 'thems is the rules, like em or not' the British people will react with fury, as a major player in the EU surely we should have a say on policy?  Well if not, sod them we'll go our own way, I'm confident this will be the view of the Daily Mail and it's possible the electorate will rally around this view.  Can the PM bargain with Brussels?  It may well define his second term.

The UKIP vote is still there you know.... There is still plenty of anti EU running about the place, what's going to happen? 

What next for Labour

When Labour elected Ed Milliband there was a feeling around the country "they've picked the wrong one".  The British people have definitely backed this one up; Red Ed was never popular and we've kept him out of Number 10 one wonders how David would've done, or Alan Johnson?

Labour is looking in trouble now, they need to turn to someone to make them look like a modern political unit.  The message of Labour was re-invented by Blair but the Blairite vote might as well go to the Tories now that the smear marks have cleared.  The old left looks dead and buried and where does that leave the party?  One suspects the Labour Party would do well with Alan Johnson at the helm, maybe Labour won't shoot themselves in the foot this time.

An incredible result is in the bag for Cameron but now and the tough times will come thick and fast.  Our PM needs to make the changes before the British people remember how much they don't like him. Good luck Dave, Boris will be combing his hair waiting for his tomorrow.

Voter Turnout

For any given reason it would seem that loads of British people don't vote...

Scarlet has no desire for this to turn into a rant about people who don't vote and why they should really and how they are all enemies of freedom.  Scarlet is just going to lay out a few of the reasons why I think these people don't turn up at the ballot box:

Apathy

Do I vote? No, can't be bothered.  Surely this is the feeling of many British nationals who don't turn up?  Whilst it is not entirely fair to say that everyone who doesn't vote simply doesn't care about what happens on the Governmental front it would certainly appear that in a good few places people merely don't consider it important enough to bother.  Scarlet wonders what these people would do if we were in a police state like North Korea?  Would the apathetic position continue or would it be a case of 'I wouldn't bother voting but I want that to be my choice not theirs' or would they submit?  How often do the apathetic really use their freedom?  The only time we consider freedoms important are when we go to court or engage in political activity (like this here blog), and how many of us do that?  

What difference would my vote make? The (X Party) will just get in anyway

This one is an issue of the system, the dated FPTP system does tend to make safe bets of many seats in our Parliament.  Of course the mainstream parties tend to treat this one with kid gloves, complacency is a big problem in politics and they have to make sure some people actually do turn up or we could get the wrong winner simply because no one bothered to vote for the person everyone actually wanted to win.

They're all as bad as each other

Why would you vote if you thought that all of the candidates were self serving imbeciles?  It seems a fairly good question, most of us consider our politicians corrupt but go and vote for them anyway so shouldn't we just not bother going and wipe our hands of the whole sorry mess?

Scarlet looks at the modern political class and can't disagree with the position.  To get any kind of political pull you need to know the right people and this upper middle class political clique is very much the old boy network of our time.  However it is not the case that they are all like this!  No seriously they're not, if you look at your ballot paper you will in all likelihood find a clean cut candidate amongst the Old Etonians.  You've never heard of these people because nobody votes for the good guys, because all the people who would appreciate them are either voting for the system or staying at home.  Scarlet believes that if you look down the list and see no one worthy of your vote you should do something to show it off, to use the freedom at your fingertips.  You may not wish to stand for election yourself but why not join a party to try and make it better and more inclusive?  Why not start an online blog and at least tell the world what you think?  Perhaps we are getting round to apathy again....

Scarlet will vote tomorrow and Scarlet will await the results with the feelings of a true nerd.  Scarlet will try to hold on to his freedoms because Scarlet cares, but it would appear that many do not.  The question remains will they ever care?  Is the voice of not voting as strong as that of the voter?  Who knows, but tomorrow night the 60% of us that bother will have made a call, and I strongly hope we will vote right and save our nation.

A Video Blog - Scarlet the Atheist

Driving home from a shoot I wondered something, and I couldn't be bothered to write it down:

Why Scarlet will leave if the SNP get in

Just a quick one today, Scarlet needs to get back to checking out the immigration policy of several nations around the world.

It looks more and more likely like Labour will get into bed with the SNP and seize control at the election next week, this may not be the disaster it looks on the face of it in economic terms, at the end of the day Mr Milliband's policies aren't all that bad but there is a bigger threat which concerns Scarlet.  The United Kingdom is predominantly made up of England both in terms of land and in terms of population, it is natural that the English would hold a lot of the cards politically, it has been part of the union since day one and it is fair this way, one person one vote.  A growing nationalist fervour is growing in Scotland, the Scots have remembered that 500 years ago there was some unpleasantness and apparently 300 years of being the same country doesn't quite make up for it.

The SNP exist to break up the UK, that is their top line policy, the SNP care about the people of Scotland and will always put them first, this is the problem on nationalism, this is why the EU hate UKIP, because they don't want to be in Brussels in the first place.  Now it appears that the bias in the system towards local parties as opposed to national appeal (such as UKIP, who will maybe get 3-4 MPs) is going to hand the power in the house to the nationalists.  You cannot blame the people of Scotland, they have been fed this nonsense that in some way everyone in England has a much better life and look North only to give the troublesome Jock's the occasional penny to keep them happy, they have been fed it and they have swallowed it, it is a lot easier to get people to believe your message if you tell them they've been hard done by and could do better.  The simple numbers show how Scotland benefits from being in the UK, ever heard of the Barnett formula?  Ah yes but of course the nuclear submarine base is in Scotland and that is a great burden for the Scots to carry...  But, hang on a minute wasn't it put there to boost employment in the area?  Does it not give Scots stable work?  Seems to me that if they had built it in Scotland the SNP would be calling it another example of Westminster giving work to rich England instead of poor Scotland.

The SNP will overstep their mark, Milliband will be a lame duck and the resentment will start, the English will rebel, they will have enough of it and it seems the United Kingdom will crash down with a thud.  Scarlet has mentioned this before but it is really bothering him now.  To have a small party espousing 19th century nationalist nonsense dominating the commons will be too much to bear, it will be proof that our nation is finally ready to die, an experiment which saw the largest expansion in the history of the world will fall on its face, this is how it ends...

So Scarlet will be off, probably to another nation which has some pride in itself, struggles like recessions bring people together rather than rip them apart, Scarlet may be about to leave our nation, because he loves it too much to see this happen.

I may be wrong, there may be a surprise in the offing, but it appears that the UK is going the way of many nations before it, we are blaming each other rather than working together and it'll cost the UK a patriot, a romantic and a dreamer...

Ed Milliband Vs Scarlet & Our right to be afraid

To say that Ed Milliband has said something that Scarlet doesn't agree with is to say something akin to 'Liverpool and Man United fans has different opinions on Sir Alex Ferguson'.  Scarlet and Ed live at different ends of the political spectrum, but Milliband is a necessity in our nation of open politics and free exchange of belief and ideas.  It is a sadness that yesterday the Leader of the Opposition (maybe our next PM) suggested that these values are not close to him, when he made a comment which stirred every liberal bone is Scarlet's body.

Mr Milliband has committed to 'outlaw' Islamophobia, now I am not one who believes that demeaning someone's religion and/or ideas is something one should make a habit of but we're not talking about hate, crime or evil here, we are talking about our right to be afraid. 

To bring you all up to speed here is the definition of said word by the OED:

Intense dislike or fear of Islam

This article is not about Islam!  This article is about the rights of individuals and about the view of Mr Milliband and the party he represents.  I could run over reasons why it would be legitimate to be afraid of Islam or to actively dislike it but that is not the point of today's post, the point is to establish how vital our right to be afraid is to us.  We must be allowed to be afraid in the United Kingdom, our fear of social and political progression is part of what keeps our society strong and healthy.  

No one is more irritated by the ramblings of the SNP more than Scarlet but they have a voice!  They must have a voice, they must have their chance to stand up and be counted just like everyone else, we are all the same in our land of liberty.  If I want to be afraid of something and post it on Twitter then I am allowed to.   Should I wish to state my position I am able to whatever that position may be, that must be the way of our society, it is absolutely key.  Why is Mr Milliband trying to take these vital ideas away?

I will send a copy of this article to Ed and I hope he will find the time to take a look and reply because he may have chosen his words badly, he may believe that all ideas and all people are equal in our land.  

With the election just over a week away one of the biggest players has chosen to say he will outlaw free thought and free expression of that thought, could 1984 be 2015?  It looks like if you want it to be, vote Labour.

After The Election - What Scarlet Thinks will happen

We are headed for deadlock!

The only certainty is the uncertainty of the entire thing!

To the politically minded like Scarlet the election this time will be fascinating, for everyone else it will be incredibly boring.  Most of the electorate will vote for who they always work for, however the others (the floaters) seem to be evenly spaced in lily pads all over the national pond.  So what is going to happen?  Naturally Scarlet doesn't know, but here is what I think might just happen:

The Tories will do better than we think

It is a tried and tested premise that people don't like being seen as 'Conservative voters'.  As a party of tradition and old values it is often seen as 'the nasty party'.  The Tories have modernised considerably under Cameron but it could take up to a generation for them to shed this image, people simply don't like saying they are going to vote Conservative.  In 1992 the Tories surpised everyone with a last minute jump to secure a 4th majority in 4 elections, we won't see that this time round but they could punch above their polling, the following things could also help them out:
- Typical small Party squeeze - The Tory machine haven't done a great job of making this election look like a choice between Cameron and Milliband, people have found it patronising.  At the end of the day however people will start to turn when the likelihood of Milliband starts to dawn on them, they will abandon UKIP and return half a dozen Tories in key marginals.
- Status Quo - usually being incumbent government is a good way of reducing your support but this time it might not happen.  As people see our nation head towards deadlock they might just vote to leave things as they are, better the devil you know.
- The Papers - The media are likely to favour Cameron, as in 1992 we could see a decisive swing if the papers let their thoughts known.

The SNP Will irritate the English

It would appear that South of the border we haven't noticed our the SNP very much, they wish to break up the UK but they do all their campaigning in Scotland so really the rest of the UK really aren't that bothered, well they're about to be a key player in Westminster. We all know that UKIP exist to remove the UK from the EU, well the SNP exist to remove Scotland from the UK.  They tried to convince the Scots to leave and they failed, what is the next step I wonder?
1. Ignore the democratic will of the Scots (Have another vote and carry on until you get the answer you want)
or
2. Irritate the English until they want out of the UK and the whole thing collapes on its face.

It may not be SNP Policy to do either of these things, perhaps it is paranoia from South of the Border, but all we need is for a few thousand to suspect it and the anti-SNP fervour will grip and there will be a reaction North of the border, the union is in danger, tread carefully all.

All 3 major party leaders will be looking down

It will be after this election that all 3 main party leaders could see themselves under threat within their own parties.  Should Cameron win he will serve out his second term but will then need to be diplomatic as his replacement gains ground in the party, the smart money is on Boris but watch out for George Osbourne.

The Liberal Democrats will probably have fallen from 23% of the vote in 2010 to only the fourth biggest party in terms of seats.  Nick Clegg got the Lib Dems in government and got their agenda into the cabinet but his tenure as leader has been disastrous for the party, they will be gutted at this election and may will come fifth in the popular vote.  Surely whatever happens it will be time for Cleggy to step down.

Ed Milliband is never going to do well out of this...  Should he bargain his way into Number 10 it will be perhaps the most unpopular government since the death of Cromwell before he has even started.  Milliband will need the SNP a heck of a lot more than he will need them, he'll be a lame duck PM and will be remembered for being weak from day one.  If Red Ed loses the election then there is no way Labour will want 5 more years of him, sorry Ed you simply don't cut it.



It's going to be a very interesting election, or so Scarlet thinks, trouble is he can't see a way the British People are going to come out on top....
 

Scarlet the Atheist - Irritating Questions

Scarlet is an atheist.  Scarlet doesn't talk about it all that much on a day to day basis but it seems that faith plays a big part in the lives of people across the world.  Just to clarify when Scarlet says 'faith' he means the belief which a person has in a supernatural entity which is in someway 'in control' of the universe.  I could well go further and explain what I mean with all the other words I say but I just thought it was worth making sure you readers know where I am when I say I have no 'faith'.

I would also like to address what I mean by 'atheist' before moving on to the main purpose of today's post as this could well lead to further confusion later on.  When I say I am an atheist I say that I do not believe that there is 'a god', I am not saying that there is no god, simply that I do not believe in what most people call 'a god'.  I do not believe in god because I do not believe that there is a reason to do so.

So today I'd like to explain my position through answering a series of questions which I and many atheists have been asked loads of times, many many times:

Why do you hate God?

We reach a bit of an issue here because you are immediately not understanding my position if you ask me this question.  I don't believe that god exists therefore I cannot openly profess to like/dislike this individual.  Scarlet doesn't hate god, Scarlet doesn't believe in God.

If Scarlet did believe in God would Scarlet love god?  No, if Scarlet believed in god he would not be very happy for a few reasons:
- Why does this God demand humanity believe yet place doubt it their mind?
- Why does this God leave behind so many inaccurate descriptions of his will?  if the God of the Qu'ran exists then the Bible is wrong etc.
- Why does God not interfere and stop the evil?  If I was in a position to cure AIDS, I would do it with absolutely no hesitation whatsoever.  The same goes with cancer and every single thing which brings pain to human beings or indeed everything which feels it.  If God existed it would be sitting watching all this, doing nothing about it.  So no, I don't hate god, but I would be very concerned about his motives if I did believe.

Isn't it a bigger leap of faith to be an Atheist?

The problem with this one is that I think people tend to misunderstand my position on the central point here.  A lot of believers think that 'if you are an atheist then something must have come from nothing', you are not listening to what I write.  (Can anyone listen to words, surely I mean read?)  I DON'T KNOW, I simply do not know where the universe came from, and that is my attitude towards loads of things and it is what feeds me to learn more.  When Darwin looked at the variety of life he thought 'I DON'T KNOW HOW THIS HAPPENED', the same goes for Newton and the Apple.  If we immediately subscribe to the premise of 'I DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS, THEREFORE IT WAS GOD' we start on a slippery slope.

If you tell me that there is a god you make a claim, when you tell me you believe this with no reason other than 'because you do'  you are making a leap of faith, I do not do this, tell me if I do.

Where do you get your morality from?

 From my life experiences and from humanist ideals.  I get my morality from the warm feeling I get when I make someone smile, from the pain I feel when I see someone suffering.  Many ideas in religious texts are not what many reasonably minded people would call moral, at least not in the Western World in any case.  Atheists and secular people ground their morality each individually just like everyone but we don't use obscure passages of text to justify evil and we don't believe in a 'cosmic justice'.

  Ok I get it, your an Atheist why do you bother going on about it?

This one really does leave a sour taste in Scarlet's mouth.  What if we turn the question around and ask a deeply religious person why they wear a cross around their neck or a turban on their head?

I abhor so many elements of religion and should this post be popular I may just spend a few posts ranting about it but my main purpose here is to spread the word of positive atheism.  To think that someone may read this post and feel more comfortable with how they feel, it would be incredible to see that. 

To Thine Ownself Be True.

Be yourself and love your life, it is (probably!) the only one you are going to get.